Great analysis of Oracle+Sun by Charles Fitzgerald, who has a particularly good radar on this topic.
Until early 2008 he was Microsoft’s former general manager of platform strategy — playing industrial chess with Sun, Oracle and IBM.
Fitzgerald predicts Oracle will fob Sun’s hardware business off to a company like Hewlett-Packard or Fujitsu.
His take on IBM:
“They got a good look at Sun, but in the end I suspect they’re going to regret not doing this deal. They regretted giving Microsoft control of the software crown jewels for the PC; they may face similar situation now on the server. Oracle can have a lot of fun making IBM choose between open systems sanctimony and controlling their own destiny.”