Wolverines will reign in 3A; 2A and 4A meets up for grabs
By Doug Drowley
Special to The Seattle Times
So, here we are again.
It’s the Wednesday before the Friday, to take a cue from one of the local sports radio hosts in town. Come Friday morning, when the 3A teams begin preliminary races at 9:45 a.m., two days of state meet action will follow at King County Aquatic Center in Federal Way.
With all of the district meets now in the books, and the psych sheets out for state, it’s time to play the prediction game once again.
We’ve used the seed times for each of the meets – 4A, 3A and 2A – in each event to determine point totals for every team, should no competitor move up or down from the times posted during those district meets.
Let’s start with the meet that appears to be a foregone conclusion.
You heard it here first: The Bellevue Wolverines will win the 3A state championship.
Okay, such a statement opens wide the chance for derisive comments come Saturday around noon when the 3A meet concludes. If Bellevue doesn’t win, I will look foolish.
But here’s the thing. Based on seed times, the Wolverines bring a 150-point lead into the state tournament over the next team in line – Kingco rival and defending champ Mercer Island.
Bellevue’s seed times would score 378 team points. The Islanders, meanwhile, would score 228.
Oh, and the Wolverines already have beaten Mercer Island in three consecutive competitions over the last three weeks – the Kingco dual meet championships, the Kingco league meet and the Sea-King District 2 meet.
Bellevue enters state with the best time in each of the three relay events, which score double points. If the Wolverines win all three relays, they’d already have a big point advantage over every other team, a fact not lost on coach Andy Hay.
“All of our relays are lights out,” Hay said. “That’s kind of unheard of. Usually, you put two good relays together and kind of have to throw away the third. I’m blessed enough that I don’t have to do that. All of our guys are so competitive.”
Deep breath taken after such a bold prediction.
Now on to the meets that look like they are completely opposite of 3A.
In 2A, the top three potential champions are separated by two – yes, two – points. If all remains the same, Sehome would win the title with 228 points. Archbishop Murphy scores 227 and Anacortes comes in at 226.
Oh, and if those teams falter, Steilacoom and Shorecrest will be there – at 169 and 159 points.
And then there is the 4A meet.
Defending champ Newport and its competition will occupy the middle spot in the schedule each day, during the afternoons.
If all goes similar to the district meets the Knights will repeat with 220 points, ahead of runner-up and Kingco rival Issaquah at 202. District 1 champion Kamiak would place third at 191.
So there it is.
A single reminder, of course, from last fall tells us of the futility of the prediction exercise. The 4A girls meet, which Newport looked to have sewn up with four events to go on Saturday, wound up with not one but two unlikely winners.
The Jackson Timberwolves and Richland Bombers girls came from behind, and after a specific result in the final 400-yard freestyle relay, tied for the team title.
So take this entry for what’s it worth – a little fun with numbers.