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The latest news and analysis on the Montlake Dawgs.

November 4, 2010 at 11:49 AM

Pac-10 picks, Week 10

I’m coming off another week having proven that the guys in Vegas know what they’re doing. While I got all five Pac-10 games right straight up — meaning I picked the right winner of the game — I again lost big against the spread, going just 1-4. I actually haven’t missed a game straight up for three weeks (and if the bragging seems unbecoming, well, I take my victories where I can get them) but remain under .500 against the spread for the season.
Other than the game in Eugene (and I’ll save my pick for tomorrow, though I realize you’re probably not waiting with bated breath) there’s again a fair amount of intrigue throughout the conference, though there’s also little question that there is beginning to form a pretty set top, middle and bottom of the conference.
Oregon, Stanford, Arizona and Oregon State are a combined 16-3 in Pac-10 play, all at least two games over .500 in conference play. Then comes four teams tied at 2-3 — USC, ASU, Cal and UW — followed by UCLA (1-4) and WSU (0-6). And suddenly, all that parity so evident in September seems to be dissolving in the November fog.
On with the picks. …
CAL AT WASHINGTON STATE (Bears by 14.5): Bears begin their Life After (Kevin) Riley and also are looking for their first win on the road this season. Odds are they just hand the ball to Shane Vereen about a million times (okay, maybe a slight exaggeration) and let the lines do the work. WSU took a huge step back last week in Tempe, otherwise this one might have seemed winnable. But even without Riley the Bears should win this one. CAL 35, WSU 17.
ARIZONA AT STANFORD (Cardinal by 9.5): The marquee game of the day in the conference and one that will determine which of these two teams stays in the Rose Bowl hunt (and since UA still has a game left with Oregon, the Wildcats still have control their own destiny. An intriguing matchup of a rugged Stanford rush offense averaging 223.8 yards per game on the ground vs. an Arizona defense allowing just 88.4 rushing yards per game. The guess here is that the home field will pull Stanford through — and Andrew Luck will make a couple of big plays to give the Cardinal some distance. STANFORD 31, ARIZONA 21.
OREGON STATE AT UCLA (Beavers by 5.5): A critical game for the Bruins and coach Rick Neuheisel, who in his third year is in the same boat as UW, needing to win three of the last four to get to a bowl game. Lose this one and UCLA will come to Seattle 3-6 on Nov. 18. UCLA’s passing game showed some signs of life last week under Richard Brehaut, and as UW fans can attest, OSU’s secondary has some holes. But OSU’s offense seems to be finding itself and being able to rely on the running of Jacquizz Rodgers — and a defense that is a little better — should be enough. OSU 31, UCLA 24.
ARIZONA STATE AT USC (Trojans by 5.5): What you wonder now is how the Trojans respond after the Oregon loss and nothing tangible to play for. ASU, meanwhile, should have more of a hop in its step after the blowout of WSU and with the motivation of a bowl game still there. This game figures to come down to QB play and whether ASU’s Steven Threet can avoid major mistakes. I’m going to call for the upset here. ASU 27, USC 24.
LAST WEEK: Straight up, 5-0; against the spread, 1-4.
SEASON TO DATE: Straight up, 45-10, against the spread, 21-26-1.



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