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Husky Football Blog

The latest news and analysis on the Montlake Dawgs.

November 3, 2011 at 5:18 PM

Picking the Pac — Week 10

We’re entering the home stretch of another year when it’s becoming apparent to me that the dudes in Vegas know what they are doing.

Last week was another when simply picking the winners in the Pac-12 wasn’t tough — I went 5-1 and am now 53-13 on the year, pretty similar to what I see out of most guys who do this as there haven’t really been a whole lot of upsets (consider that the top six teams in the conference are 29-6, which of course means the bottom six are 6-29, not the kind of parity we’ve seen a lot of other years of late).

Picking against the spread, though, that’s a whole different deal for me as I went 2-4 last week and am now 29-36 for the season, meaning I’d be just about ready to check out of the palatial Quality Inn and Shilo Suites that I usually stay at when I’m down there, just enough money left to take the bus home.

It’s another potentially similar week on the docket as there are six Pac-12 games, four with spreads of 13.5 or higher, a fifth at 9.5, and only one that Vegas considers close. But while the winners may seem apparent, how they get there is another matter.

On with the picks. …

USC AT COLORADO (Trojans by 21): This Friday night game looked like it had potential when ESPN agreed to do it a few months ago. It doesn’t now, unless USC has the letdown of all letdowns following their near-miss against Stanford. Even then, you’d figure USC will eventually pull away. Just a tough year for CU, which has been outscored 224-74 in five conference games, not a ton off UW’s pace in 2008 when the Huskies were outscored 347-111. USC 42, COLORADO 17.

STANFORD AT OREGON STATE (Cardinal by 21): The Cardinal also has to head back out on the road again after the Titanic struggle against the Trojans. Of all the things Andrew Luck has done, he’s never won a game in the state of Oregon, losing to the Beavers in Corvallis in 2009, 38-28, and at Oregon last year. He’ll get it done this time, though for some reason I think the Beavers will keep it close for a little while. STANFORD 38, OSU 21.

WASHINGTON STATE AT CAL (Bears by 9.5): Kind of a must-win for both to keep bowl hopes alive, with maybe more than that on the line for the Cougs (and yes, it does feel like we’ve written that just about every week). Figure Cal’s defense to shut down WSU’s run and force the Cougars to throw and then it comes down to whether WSU can convert what should be a few opportunities in the passing game. Cal has been really up-and-down, and is on track for what should be an up week. CAL 34, WSU 23.

UTAH AT ARIZONA (Wildcats by 3.5): The Utes saved their season with last week’s win over Oregon State and now, for all that’s happened, could get to seven wins, maybe even eight, especially if they get this one. Arizona, though, played hard last week at UW and its offense should be able to move on Utah — and not sure the Utes can keep up, even with some of the Wildcats’ injury issues. ARIZONA 34, UTAH 24.

ARIZONA STATE AT UCLA (Devils by 13.5): Believe it or not, the Pac-12 South Division title is pretty much on the line here — if the Bruins win it, they’d be in a tie for the lead and holding the tiebreaker. ASU, though, has the better defense and the more balanced offense and that should be enough for the Devils to get a win that would then essentially clinch the South. ASU 35, UCLA 24.

Last week: Straight up, 5-1; against the spread, 2-4

Season to date: Straight up, 53-13; against the spread, 29-36.

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