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Husky Men's Basketball

The latest news and analysis on Husky men's hoops.

June 27, 2007 at 11:43 AM

Hawes 30th best player available?

It’s the day before the NBA Draft, and the only thing there may be more of right now than the various rumors floating around the league are presidential candidates (couldn’t they all just wait until 2008?)
Spencer Hawes is right in the middle of many of them — maybe he’s going to Minnesota at 7, or Chicago at 9, or Sacramento at 10, or maybe if the Sonics deal Luke Ridnour for Atlanta’s pick at 11, the hometown team can get him (course, he’ll probably have to move in a year).
A couple of good one-stop shops for all your draft needs are and
What I found more interesting than any rumor was this breakdown of the draft by’s John Hollinger.
I’m not sure you can access this unless you have the Insider package so I’ll summarize it briefly.
Hollinger, a longtime NBA numbers guru, analyzes all of the prospective top picks based on a points rating that is an accumulation of a number of different statistical categories.
In the final rating, he has Hawes as the No. 30 player available in this draft (Kevin Durant is No. 1, followed by Greg Oden. He has Rodney Stuckey at No. 9, with Hawes also behind the likes of LSU’s Glen Davis (12), Arizona’s Marcus Williams (26) and Pitt’s Aaron Gray (28). Having seen Hawes go head-to-head against Davis and Gray and pretty much dominate, I’m a little dubious. (Worth pointing out that the same system a year ago had Brandon Roy No. 3 behind Tyrus Thomas and Shelden Williams).
Hollinger writes that Hawes is a player “best to be avoided” who looks like “a solid second-rounder.” He further states that it’s a “huge red flag” that Hawes had such an unimpressive rebound ratio “considering he was bigger than everyone he played against.”
He also writes that Hawes had a “run-of-the-mill” true shooting percentage of 55 percent, which he says is at odds with all of the talk of Hawes being such a skilled player.
In conclusion, Hollinger writes of Hawes that “a lot of folks think he can become a quality pro post player; based on his numbers, I just don’t see it.”
The Pro-Hawes camp, of course, could point out all that impacted those numbers this season, namely the knee injury and the illness, as well as an offensive system that sometimes seemed at odds with his talents.
Among other intersting comments, Hollinger writes that “the two USC guys (Nick Young and Gabe Pruitt) look like total busts” and that “Rodney Stuckey looks like the real deal.”
Hollinger says that if Young is such a great athlete “how’d he have only 27 steals and 10 blocks (this year)?” He also says Pruitt’s stats come nowhere near to justifying how high he may be picked. But Pruitt missed about a third of the season, which I thought made it impossible to really judge his play (I think he could be pretty good).
And I like Stuckey, but I still wonder how he couldn’t even get his team to finish in the top six of the Big Sky this year (maybe the firing of coach Mike Burns explains it).
As for Hawes, I think he’s better than Hollinger thinks he is. But until Hawes proves it, those memories of being shut down by the likes of Robbie Cowgill will linger.



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