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Husky Men's Basketball

The latest news and analysis on Husky men's hoops.

February 14, 2012 at 11:29 AM

Five wins = NCAA tournament?

With five games remaining in the Pac-12 race, there’s a belief in the blogosphere that Washington needs five wins to make it to the NCAA tournament. That sounds about right to me.
Should the Huskies (17-8, 10-3) win the remainder of their regular-season games, they will capture at least a share of the conference championship with California. Regardless of UW’s No. 61 RPI, 0-2 showing against top 25 ranked opponents or any other metric, there’s no way the selection committee ignores the Pac-12 champion.
Now here’s where it gets interesting.
Any game the Huskies lose in the regular season, they’ll need to win that many in the conference tournament.
Should they finish 4-1 down the stretch, they’d need to win its Pac-12 tourney opener to feel good about its NCAA tournament hopes.
A 3-2 finish means two wins in the tournament.
A 2-3 finish would require the Huskies to win three in the tournament and advance to the title game.
If the Huskies were to stumble to a 1-4 record down the stretch, they’d likely fall to fifth in the standings and will need to win four in the tourney to capture a third straight title and the automatic berth.
And an 0-5 finish is highly unlikely, but would obviously require the Huskies to win the Pac-12 tournament.
It can get confusing, but the bottom line is it feels as if Washington’s magic number is five wins. Some way, some how the Huskies need to get to 22 overall wins if they’re going to make a fourth straight NCAA tournament appearance.
That’s a rudimentary breakdown, but Jeff Taylor at Husky Haul does a much better job of mapping UW’s paths to the NCAA tournament.
And Griffin Bennett at Montlake Madness handicaps the final three weeks of the Pac-12 race.

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