Topic: Andy Glockner
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February 19, 2013 at 1:59 PM
Go figure. Last year Washington wins the Pac-12 regular-season title and misses the NCAA tournament while the conference sends just two teams to the Big Dance due to the league’s horrible non-conference record.
This year the Huskies are fighting to finish in the middle of the pack and the Pac-12 is projected to put 5-6 teams in the NCAA tourney thanks to a great non-conference record.
Any chance Washington (14-12) earns an at-large berth hinges on Wednesday’s game at No. 12 Arizona. The Huskies need a win in Tucson, Ariz. as well as a 5-0 finish to end the regular season and a deep run in the Pac-12 Tournament to put themselves in position for one of the 38 at-large berths.
Andy Glockner at SI.com writes: “If they can’t win at Arizona on Thursday, there’s probably not enough left here for a reasonable at-large run without some crazy run in Vegas.”
Glockner believes Arizona is a lock to make the NCAA tournament while Oregon, UCLA and Colorado should make it. He has California, Arizona State, Stanford and UW on the bubble.
ESPN bracket guru Joe Lunardi believes a half dozen Pac-12 teams will make the NCAA tourney. Here’s his list of teams with seeds in parenthesis: Arizona (3), Oregon (6), UCLA (8), Colorado (9), Arizona State (11) and California (12).
Jerry Palm at CBSsports.com projects five Pac-12 teams in the tourney including: Arizona (2), Oregon (8), UCLA (9), Colorado (9) and California (11).
February 5, 2013 at 11:58 AM
ESPN bracket guru Joe Lunardi believes Washington is one of the top eight teams just outside of the 68-team NCAA tournament at the moment.
According to his projections, five Pac-12 teams will make the Big Dance including: No. 2 seed Arizona, No. 4 Oregon, No. 7 UCLA, No. 10 Colorado and No. 12 Arizona State.
Lunardi believes seven teams are ahead of UW. Here’s the list (in order): Illinois, BYU, Maryland, Alabama, Villanova, Bucknell and St. John’s.
Jerry Palm at CBSsports.com has four Pac-12 teams (Arizona, Oregon, UCLA and Colorado) in the tourney.
Andy Glockner at SI.com has the same four in the dance. Arizona State is the last team out in his bracket.
January 29, 2013 at 4:17 PM
In his latest NCAA tournament projections, Joe Lunardi includes five Pac-12 teams.
According to ESPN’s bracket guru, Arizona is a No. 2 seed, Oregon (four), UCLA (six), Colorado (nine) and Arizona (12).
Washington is listed in the next four out category, which means Lunardi considers the Huskies the seventh best team not in the tourney.
Meanwhile, Andy Glockner at SI.com has a similar NCAA tourney projection that also has five conference teams among the 68-team field.
Glocker’s bracket includes: Arizona (2), Oregon (four), UCLA (six), Colorado (nine) and Arizona State (11).
January 18, 2013 at 10:04 AM
Where would Washington be if it hadn’t stumbled in home defeats to Albany and Nevada?
When you take a look at the Huskies’ schedule, those losses are glaring and could come back to haunt them in March.
Washington was 98 in the RPI weeks ago. Following Wednesday’s 64-54 win over Colorado, the Huskies have improved to 51 in the RPI, according to RealTimeRPI.com.
Nevada (8-7, 0-2 WAC) is 178 in the RPI and Albany (15-4, 4-1 America East) is 125. However, the Great Danes could help UW later this season if they win their conference. They’re one of the favorites to win the league tourney and currently they’re tied for second in the standings.
According to the RPI, Washington’s other defeats have been against respectable teams including Connecticut (21), Ohio State (25) and Colorado State (27).
Washington is 12-5 and if not for the upset defeats to Albany (63-62) and Nevada (76-73), the Huskies would be 14-3 and possibly pushing for a spot in the top 25 polls. With 14 regular-season games left – eight at home and six on the road – they would have needed just six wins to reach the mystical 20-win plateau.
Due to the early stumbles, their task is more difficult.
It’s never too early to make NCAA tournament projections no matter how silly they may seem.
This week, ESPN’s bracket guru Joe Lunardi has four Pac-12 teams in the tournament, including Arizona (No. 2 seed), UCLA (No. 7 seed), Oregon (No. 7 seed) and Colorado (No. 8 seed). He also has Stanford as a bubble team.
Pac-12 observers may suggest Lunardi is being way too kind to the Buffaloes, which has lost four of the past five games. The Cardinal is also a curious choice.
Meanwhile Andy Glockner, a NCAA tournament bracket guru at SI.com, is the first (I believe) to include the Huskies in his tournament projections. He has UW as the No. 12 seed playing in San Jose in the West region. Glockner has five Pac-12 teams in the tourney, including Arizona (No. 1 seed), UCLA (6), Oregon (6) and Colorado (10).
The odd team out of both projections is Arizona State (14-3, 3-1).
Despite the early setbacks, Washington (12-5, 4-0) is still in a very good position for a great season.
Noted college basketball statistician Ken Pomeroy projects UW will finish 19-12 and 11-7. But before the season, he had the Huskies at 17-14 and 8-10.
One of the most optimistic scenarios would be for the Huskies to win their remaining eight home games and split their six games on the road to finish 23-8 and 15-3. This rosy forecast should be good enough for a NCAA tournament at-large berth regardless of what happens in the Pac-12 Tournament.
Interesting to note, UW finished the regular season 21-9 and 14-4 last year. And we all know what happened after that.
December 6, 2012 at 12:26 PM
If you look solely at the Pac-12′s RPI rating, then it seems as if the conference has gotten off to a great start.
And yet other metrics such as Jeff Sagarin’s ratings draw a different conclusion and rates the Pac-12 fifth in the nation.
Ken Pomeroy, who claims to use advanced analysis, also has the Pac-12 sixth in the country.
Andy Glockner at SI.com, who ranks the Pac-12 seventh among the conferences, writes: “Every team has question marks, but Arizona, UCLA, Colorado and Stanford have solid potential. Cal should be decent. USC is a sleeper. The bottom of the league can’t possibly be as bad as last season.”
I prefer to look at W-L records. You could make a strong argument that the Pac-12 has returned to prominence if you look at the records of the teams at the top of the conference.
Arizona is 6-0 followed by three 7-1 teams (Arizona State, Colorado and Oregon). California also has just one loss.
But there’s no getting around the fact the Pac-12 is 2-10 against ranked teams. Say whatever you will about the fallacy of rankings early in the season, but it’s still an indication of which teams are among the strongest in the nation.
And at that point, the Pac-12 has fared miserably against teams that are considered the best.
RPI ratings will rise and fall over the course of a season. But W-L records against ranked teams won’t change and the Pac-12′s poor showing only reinforces negative opinions among college basketball observers.
The conference desperately needs to have 2-3 ranked teams when league play begins in January or else it’s difficult for teams to improve their RPI and strength of schedule later in the season. That’s what doomed Washington last season when the Huskies won the regular-season title, but didn’t receive a NCAA tournament at-large invitation.
The Pac-12 had just two teams ((No. 11 seed Colorado and No. 12 seed California) in the 2012 NCAA tourney and the league will struggle to do better next year unless it can win some big games this month.
Here’s a look at some important games on tap for the Pac-12.
Colorado at No. 9 Kansas, Dec. 8
USC vs. No. 14 Minnesota, Dec. 8
California vs. No. 21 UNLV, Dec. 9
California vs. No. 16 Creighton, Dec. 15
Arizona vs. No. 6 Florida, Dec. 15
Stanford at No. 25 North Carolina State, Dec. 18
UCLA vs. No. 12 Missouri, Dec. 28
The Pac-12 is riding a seven-game losing streak against ranked teams. If that doesn’t reverse itself in a major way, then we could be looking at another year when winning the regular-season Pac-12 title won’t mean much.
THURSDAY MORNING LINKS:
— Washington State nearly gave the Pac-12 it’s biggest win of the season, however, the Cougars came up short in the final seconds and fell 71-69 to No. 10 Gonzaga. It was a crushing defeat for WSU, which received 23 points from Brock Motum and 22 from DaVonte Lacy.
— Sophomore guard Spencer Dinwiddie scored a career-high 29 points to lead Colorado to a 70-61 victory over cross-state rival Colorado State in front of a record crowd of 11,708.
— Jarred DuBois scored 18 points and Utah used a suffocating defense to cruise to a 76-55 win over Boise State.
— Jahii Carson had 20 points and six assists, Eric Jacobsen added 16 points, and Arizona State used a dominating defensive stretch in the second half to beat Hartford 71-63.
— Washington junior C.J. Wilcox is ranked 71st among the top NBA draft prospects, according to Jeff Goodman at CBSSports.com. There’s 11 players on his list, including former UCLA big man Joshua Smith.
— ESPN.com’s Jason King writes about early Player of the Year candidates and he does not include a Pac-12 player among the top 15 candidates.
— Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski criticized college presidents and administrators over conference realignment. He’s particularly miffed at Maryland switching to the Big Ten.
— NCAA President Mark Emmert wants to curtail coach’s salaries.