Topic: Jeff Sagarin
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November 24, 2013 at 8:04 AM
Even before Jernard Jarreau’s season-ending knee injury, the loss of Desmond Simmons for a few weeks and their 2-3 start, the Huskies were picked to finish eighth in the Pac-12 in a preseason media poll.
Given new information, the college basketball forecasters have adjusted their predictions and the future appears dim for Washington.
Noted statistician Ken Pomeroy has UW finishing with a 13-18 overall record and 6-12 in Pac-12.
Pomeroy’s prediction is similar to a projection from Team Rankings, a gambling website, that computes Washington will finish eighth in the Pac-12.
Using advanced mathematics, Pomeroy said Washington does a very good job at protecting the ball. The Huskies average 11.7 turnovers, which ranks fifth among the 351 Division I teams. They also do a good job at the line, converting 75 percent of their free throws that ranks 55th in the nation.
However, Washington is atrocious on defense where it has a 56.4 effective field goal percentage (318 rank) and opponents are converting 57 percent of their shots inside the arc, which ranks 330th.
Pomeroy has Washington at No. 138 in his overall rating.
Jeff Sagarin, a sports statistician for USA Today, has the Huskies at 172 in his rankings.
January 28, 2013 at 11:46 AM
So who’s No. 1 in men’s college basketball?
Well that depends on who you ask.
Fifty-one of the 65 national media panelists who vote in the Associated Press poll picked Michigan (19-1), which is the first time the Wolverines have held the top spot since the Fab Five days 20 years ago. Here’s a look at the writers who picked Michigan.
In the coaches ranking, Kansas (18-1) got the No. 1 nod, collecting 16 of 31 first-place votes.
Meanwhile, Duke (17-1) is No. 1 in the RPI.
So there you have it. Five ways to determine the top team in the nation and you get four different results.
Good thing there’s a tournament in March to decided the national champion.
As for Washington, the Huskies didn’t fall in the RPI as much as you might have expected following last week’s two losses. They’re in a tie with Nebraska at 73, just three spots from the previous week.
Here’s where the other Pac-12 teams rank: Arizona (4), Oregon (19), Colorado (21), UCLA (32), Arizona State (58), Stanford (75), California (80), USC (130), Oregon State (153), Washington State (161) and Utah (179).
December 6, 2012 at 12:26 PM
If you look solely at the Pac-12′s RPI rating, then it seems as if the conference has gotten off to a great start.
And yet other metrics such as Jeff Sagarin’s ratings draw a different conclusion and rates the Pac-12 fifth in the nation.
Ken Pomeroy, who claims to use advanced analysis, also has the Pac-12 sixth in the country.
Andy Glockner at SI.com, who ranks the Pac-12 seventh among the conferences, writes: “Every team has question marks, but Arizona, UCLA, Colorado and Stanford have solid potential. Cal should be decent. USC is a sleeper. The bottom of the league can’t possibly be as bad as last season.”
I prefer to look at W-L records. You could make a strong argument that the Pac-12 has returned to prominence if you look at the records of the teams at the top of the conference.
Arizona is 6-0 followed by three 7-1 teams (Arizona State, Colorado and Oregon). California also has just one loss.
But there’s no getting around the fact the Pac-12 is 2-10 against ranked teams. Say whatever you will about the fallacy of rankings early in the season, but it’s still an indication of which teams are among the strongest in the nation.
And at that point, the Pac-12 has fared miserably against teams that are considered the best.
RPI ratings will rise and fall over the course of a season. But W-L records against ranked teams won’t change and the Pac-12′s poor showing only reinforces negative opinions among college basketball observers.
The conference desperately needs to have 2-3 ranked teams when league play begins in January or else it’s difficult for teams to improve their RPI and strength of schedule later in the season. That’s what doomed Washington last season when the Huskies won the regular-season title, but didn’t receive a NCAA tournament at-large invitation.
The Pac-12 had just two teams ((No. 11 seed Colorado and No. 12 seed California) in the 2012 NCAA tourney and the league will struggle to do better next year unless it can win some big games this month.
Here’s a look at some important games on tap for the Pac-12.
Colorado at No. 9 Kansas, Dec. 8
USC vs. No. 14 Minnesota, Dec. 8
California vs. No. 21 UNLV, Dec. 9
California vs. No. 16 Creighton, Dec. 15
Arizona vs. No. 6 Florida, Dec. 15
Stanford at No. 25 North Carolina State, Dec. 18
UCLA vs. No. 12 Missouri, Dec. 28
The Pac-12 is riding a seven-game losing streak against ranked teams. If that doesn’t reverse itself in a major way, then we could be looking at another year when winning the regular-season Pac-12 title won’t mean much.
THURSDAY MORNING LINKS:
— Washington State nearly gave the Pac-12 it’s biggest win of the season, however, the Cougars came up short in the final seconds and fell 71-69 to No. 10 Gonzaga. It was a crushing defeat for WSU, which received 23 points from Brock Motum and 22 from DaVonte Lacy.
— Sophomore guard Spencer Dinwiddie scored a career-high 29 points to lead Colorado to a 70-61 victory over cross-state rival Colorado State in front of a record crowd of 11,708.
— Jarred DuBois scored 18 points and Utah used a suffocating defense to cruise to a 76-55 win over Boise State.
— Jahii Carson had 20 points and six assists, Eric Jacobsen added 16 points, and Arizona State used a dominating defensive stretch in the second half to beat Hartford 71-63.
— Washington junior C.J. Wilcox is ranked 71st among the top NBA draft prospects, according to Jeff Goodman at CBSSports.com. There’s 11 players on his list, including former UCLA big man Joshua Smith.
— ESPN.com’s Jason King writes about early Player of the Year candidates and he does not include a Pac-12 player among the top 15 candidates.
— Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski criticized college presidents and administrators over conference realignment. He’s particularly miffed at Maryland switching to the Big Ten.
— NCAA President Mark Emmert wants to curtail coach’s salaries.