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Jon Talton

Analysis and commentary on economic news, trends and issues, with an emphasis on Seattle and the Northwest.

May 28, 2009 at 1:19 PM

New poll: Half of Washington voters expect economy to get worse

Nevermind that national consumer confidence is on the rise. Half of Washington voters expect the economy to get worse, according to an Elway Poll released today.

Fifty-one percent of those surveyed expect things to worsen, while 43 percent say the recession will last another two years or more. The most pessimistic group: those with lower incomes and those who are older. King County respondents (54 percent) were more likely to say the economy had stabilized.

A caveat: the poll has a small sample (405 registered voters) and a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percent. The poll was conducted May 19-21st.

Separately, the state issued its preliminary June forecast. It expects the recession to end sometime in the third quarter, assuming the shape of a “U” downturn. More bearish economists say things such as high debt, rising oil prices or more shocks could turn this into an L-shaped downturn — nasty. And even the Fed’s economists expect renewed growth to be tepid.

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