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Jon Talton

Analysis and commentary on economic news, trends and issues, with an emphasis on Seattle and the Northwest.

September 14, 2011 at 10:00 AM

Recession risks rising; vote in our poll

A Reuters poll of economists shows that more experts say the risk of another recession is increasing. Unemployment continues to be a huge drag on the economy, as does the housing market and continuing overhang of debt from the bubble. Growth has slowed to nearly nothing. Government cutbacks guarantee further joblessness and lack of demand. The troubles at Bank of America show that all is not well in the financial sector, even after the massive rescue by taxpayers. And this is even without a banking crisis in Europe or the collapse of the Eurozone.

I’m interested in your opinion.

Will we have another recession soon?

My take: We’re on a knife’s edge — and this is using conventional measures such as gross domestic product. In reality, these don’t show the depth of pain and contraction for ordinary Americans or local businesses. They don’t give a very good accounting for how different this cycle is from anything we’ve seen since the Depression. I give us 50/50, at best, even if the Obama plan passes. But for many, the Great Recession never ended.

Comments | More in Eurozone, Great Recession, Housing, Income/living standards, Jobs/Unemployment

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