NOTE: 11:25 p.m. Some of you have noticed that my math in this post was off. You are correct and I’ve written a new post up top to correct the figures from this one. Keep reading this, please, for some comic relief. Otherwise, shift the mouse pad up a few more inches. Thank you.
We’ve talked for a while about how the great pitching by the Mariners has helped the team win games when it scores as few as four runs.
In fact, the Mariners this season are 24-4 when scoring four or more.
You got it. That’s not a misprint. They are 11-30 at all other times, no matter how good the pitching is.
Last year, the Mariners scored four or more runs in 36 percent of their games.
This year, they’ve done it in 41 percent of their games so far.
So, that’s encouraging.
Since the Mariners began winning more than they lose back on April 26, when they began a series at Detroit, they have scored four or more at a 43 percent clip.
They had actually been up at 50 percent until the past 10 games.
Since that time, the M’s have scored four or more in just two of 10 games. Fortunately for them, they are still 4-6 over that stretch.
Seattle is on-pace for 580 runs total, which isn’t all that great. It’s better than the 513 scored last season, but has to pick up for this team to have a chance at contending.
But as bad as the offense can look at times, it at least has increased upon the frequency of games in which it gets to that magical run total of four.
Up until last week, the team was averaging four or more in 50 percent of games compared to the 36 percent last year. That’s a significant increase.
The M’s have 93 games left in their season. Scoring four or more in half those games would give them 56 or so games at that clip. Win at their current four-plus runs clip and that’s 47 more victories.
Gets them to 82 on the season.
Not going to be enough.
This offense needs to pick it up. Not immensely, but to the point where it can average four or more in more than half of their contests. Maybe in 60 percent of them. Maybe in two-thirds.
But even in half of their games from here on in likely won’t get it done.
Wish Dustin Ackley well tomorrow night. Ichiro, Chone Figgins and Jack Cust, too.
This team truly needs an upgrade from within.