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Daily coverage of the Mariners during the season and all year long.

June 16, 2011 at 11:25 PM

My math was off in the last post, so let’s try this again

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Warned you over the years about my Canadian math getting in the way and sometimes adding and subtracting change from one dollar. Anyhow, some of my numbers, as a reader astutely pointed out, were off in the last blog post.
Rather than go back and make fixes all over the post, let’s try again.
First off, the Mariners are 23-5 when scoring four or more. Not 24-4. Doesn’t make too much of a difference, but we try to be accurate here as much as possible.
So, with 93 games left in the season, if the Mariners can get back to scoring four or more in half those games, you’d talk about a 46-game sample. Take the .821 winning percentage when scoring four or more and that’s another 38 wins, Gets the team up to 73.
But wait! There’s more. You also have to factor in the team’s winning percentage when scoring three runs or fewer. They are 12-29 (.293) over that same stretch. So, over the remaining 93 games and that half of them when they don’t score at least four, that gives them 13 more wins.
In other words, a total of 86.

Could that be enough to get the Mariners to the post-season? Yes, it could very well be enough. And up until 10 games ago, the Mariners were scoring four or more runs over just about 50 percent of their games.
The last 10 games, they’ve done it only twice.
That’s a problem.
This team must start scoring more. But you saw how much this team was winning since going 8-15 the first 23 games.
After that, they began scoring just enough runs to support their stellar pitching and climb out of the cellar.
So, we’ll see.
But yeah, the team does need to pick it up.
Someone else pointed out that the M’s also have a winning record when scoring three or more, so that should really be the team’s base point. Three or more runs minimum to win a lot of games.
Possibly. After all, none of this is exact science.
But when you consider the team’s pitching staff has a 3.42 ERA, I don’t think scoring three runs at minimum is going to cut it. It has so far, but some luck has been involved in that.
When your pitchers tend to give up — again, on average — 3 1/2 runs per game, it would be foolhardy to think averaging three per night will work out routinely as we move forward.
But score four? That gives you a statistical shot. After all, four is better than 3 1/2. And that’s just the minimum baseline we’re setting.
Heck, the M’s are 17-2 when they score at least five. That pitching is pretty darned good. But just for stats-sake, I’d start with four runs as a baseline.
Besides, any playoff team should be able to average four runs per game.
So, my apologies for the numbers confusion. Glad some of you spotted it. Hopefully, you’re still awake to read this.



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