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July 27, 2012 at 8:56 PM

Blake Beavan tries to miss more bats, minimize contact: official “modern stats” game thread

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Mike Carp had three hits last night, but punching balls through infield holes isn’t quite what fans were waiting to see. Carp showed that he could still deliver some substance to his hits in tonight’s sixth inning when he launched a solo homew run deep to right-center off Jeremy Guthrie to make it 6-1.
That’s the type of contact that will help Carp stay in the majors beyond this year and ease some of the fears about his unsustainable BABIP from the second half of last season.
Blake Beavan allowed his usual contact up until the past two innings, but started missing bats with two on and none out in the fifth and it helped big. Two strikeouts later, he gave up another flyball, but this one landed in a glove to get him out of trouble. Two more flyballs in the sixth show he might be slowing down a bit, but with a five-run lead, who gives a monkey’s hindtail?
8:00 p.m.: Two innings in and Jeremy Guthrie’s WHIP is still too high at 4.00 and was at 6.02 after 1 1/3 innings, the same as what Jonathan Sanchez’s was last week when M’s knocked him out of game and out of KC. Uncanny. John Jaso is making pretty solid contact on pitches inside the zone tonight and drove the ball pretty well to left field in the second to bring home Dustin Ackley from third to make it a 5-1 game.
Brendan Ryan got the innign started with a single and then Dustin Ackley brought him around with a solid double to the gap in right center. Ackley’s line drive rate has improved over his infield pop-ups before the Royals came to town.
7:44 p.m.: Jeremy Guthrie got a tad unlucky in that first inning as his first baseman made a poorly-calculated decision to try to out-run Michael Saunders to the bag on a grounder. Instead of two out and none on, Guthrie had a base-runner with one out and watched him take third base on a single to right by Jesus Montero.
John Jaso then rewarded Eric Wedge for his long overdue decision to start him at catcher against a right-hander by depositing a Guthrie pitch over the right field wall. We’ll ignore Guthrie’s xFIP numbers when it came to that one, because it was going to be over anybody’s fence.
So, the Mariners lead it 3-0.
You’ll remember that Guthrie came over in the swap for Jonathan Sanchez. Last week in KC, Sanchez was lifted in the second inning with a WHIP of 6.02. Well, tonight, Guthrie’s WHIP after an inning is 5.00. I’d say that trade is looking even-Steven there, bub.


7:29 p.m.: Blake Beavan got a bit lucky with his BABIP in that first inning, with Brendan Ryan upping his UZR totals on that play deep in the hole to his right. Beavan also got a bit fortunate on that hard-hit grounder by Lorenzo Cain that went right to Kyle Seager to begin a 5-4-3 double play. Had the ball been hit softer, it would have been tough to double Cain up. But the only reason the Royals had a baserunner to begin with was because Alcides Escobar found a hole in the outfield on that flare to right. Sometimes, BABIP can even up on guys.
7:09 p.m.: Blake Beavan went out in Tampa Bay last weekend and posted a K/9 ratio of 5.63, which was the highest of any game he’s pitched this season outside of a 12.60 posted in May at Colorado (but we don’t count anything achieved against the Rockies, so ignore this).
Beavan’s FIP (Fielding Independant Pitching) stat of 1.82 for the game was also his highest of the season. He had a 56.5 percent ground ball rate and also a season-low 26.1 percent flyball rate, a sign that even though hitters continue to make contact, it was of the less lethal kind.
Overall, though we’d still like to see Beavan miss more bats before declaring that we’re comfortable seeing him in a big-league rotation, we have to admit we’re far more comfortable with these numbers than seeing Hector Noesi’s splits on 0-2 counts.
The Royals have a weighted on-base average and weighted runs created number far superior to the Rays, so they could present a challenge for Beavan. But yeah, last night they stank and overall pretty much bite the big one.

Comments | Topics: Brendan Ryan, Jesus Montero

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