The Times reports that Initiative 522 “trails in all but four counties.” Which four? Knowing that 522 appealed to the left side of the house, let’s use some history to guess which counties.
In 2007, Tim Eyman’s Initiative 960 required a two-thirds vote in the Legislature for tax increases, or a vote of the people, and also required the tax-advisory votes we just had. Progressives disliked it. I-960 passed in all but four counties: King, San Juan, Jefferson and Thurston. King is the home of liberal Seattle, Jefferson is the home of Port Townsend and Thurston is the home of state government and Evergreen State College. San Juan is the islands.
In 2004 Jim Johnson, a conservative attorney, ran for the Washington Supreme Court. He won in 35 counties and lost four: King, San Juan, Jefferson and Whatcom. Whatcom is the home of Bellingham and Western Washington University.
Also in 2004 in the double-recount gubernatorial contest between Chris Gregoire and Dino Rossi, Gregoire won five of 39 counties: King, San Juan, Jefferson, Thurston and Whatcom. (And for her, five was enough, barely.)
In 2000, when Maria Cantwell unseated Sen. Slade Gorton, she won in five counties: King, San Juan, Snohomish, Jefferson and Thurston. Snohomish is her home county.
Fast-forward to 2013. With some confidence, our guess about where 522 passed would be King, San Juan, and Jefferson—and that’s right. Between Thurston and Whatcom we flip a coin. (It’s Whatcom. In Thurston, as I write, Yes on 522 is at 49.81 percent, making Thurston the “No” closest to “Yes,” and it may become a “Yes” before the day is out.)
P.S., 6:10 p.m. : Thurston has flipped to “Yes.”