The likelihood that the conflicting gun initiatives on Tuesday’s ballot both will pass has lessened amid a barrage of advertising in the closing weeks of the campaign. The percentage of voters who said they’d vote for Initiative 591 and Initiative 594 both fell from 32 percent in July to 22 percent in October.
I have no idea what those voters are thinking. The measures are fundamentally conflicting. Initiative 594 expands background checks. Initiative 591 restricts broader background checks, deferring to federal standards.
But the latest KCTS9 Washington Poll, led by the University of Washington’s Matt Barreto, shows that both measures still could pass. I-594 is in stronger position in the Washington Poll (64 percent say they’re certain, likely, or leaning toward a yes vote) and the Elway Poll (60 percent).
I-591 fell to 39 percent in the latest Elway Poll. But in the Washington Poll, the support and opposition to I-591 is more closely split: 45.4 percent certain-likely-leaning toward yes versus 43.4 percent certain-likely-leaning toward no. The undecided vote is 8.8 percent.
What would happen if both pass? There is no precedent, no landmark case law on this.