Voter turnout predictions: Can state and King County both be right?

The Washington Secretary of State’s Office has estimated that 81 percent of registered voters will cast a ballot in Washington this week. King County estimates turnout will be about 87 percent.

But if past presidential elections are any indication, it seems unlikely that both will prove true.

In every presidential race since 1996, there has never been more than a 2.4 percent difference between statewide and King County turnout, according to a review of turnout data by The Seattle Times.

In fact, in most years, turnout statewide and in the state’s largest county were within a single percentage of one another. Only in 1996 was the difference more than 1 percent. But even in that year it was nowhere near the 6 percent difference predicted for today’s election.

Here are the the final turnout percentages statewide and in King County for the past four presidential elections.

Wash. King

2008   84.6%   83.9%
2004   82.2%   83.1%
2000   75.5%   74.5%
1996   74.5%   76.9%

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Politics Northwest is the go-to blog for politics in our region. The blog explores national, state and local political news and issues. Reporters from Washington, D.C., to Seattle City Hall to the state capital in Olympia contribute. Editors are Richard Wagoner and Beth Kaiman.

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