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Politics Northwest

The Seattle Times political team explores national, state and local politics.

November 19, 2012 at 3:08 PM

Snohomish County again proves a bellwether in governor’s race

Snohomish County has again lived up to its uncanny reputation for closely predicting the outcome of gubernatorial races in Washington.

With ballot counting nearly finished, Democratic Governor-elect Jay Inslee beat Republican Rob McKenna by 51.3% to 48.7% statewide.

In Snohomish County, Inslee leads McKenna 51.1% to 48.9%. That’s just .2 percent off the statewide mark — the closest mirroring of the final outcome of any of the state’s 39 counties.

While King County was once again the key to the Democratic victory in the gubernatorial race (Inslee beat McKenna by 218,000 votes here), its neighbor to the north is a better indicator of the final margins.

As we noted on Election Day, going back to 1980, Snohomish County has had the best record for predicting the statewide vote totals for the winner in governors races, according to an analysis by Seattle Times data whiz Justin Mayo.

This year’s result keeps the bellwether’s streak very much alive.

1980                          SnoCo      Statewide

D    McDermott           44.6%         43.3%
R    Spellman              55.4%         56.7%

1984
D     Gardner               52.7%         53.3%
R     Spellman             47.3%         46.7%

1988
D     Gardner               62.5%         62.2%
R     Williams              37.5%         37.8%

1992
D     Lowry                  52.4%         52.2%
R     Eikenberry         47.6%         47.8%

1996
D    Locke                    57.4%        58.0%
R    Craswell               42.6%        42.0%

2000
D    Locke                    56.9%        57.9%
R    Carlson                 41.3%        40.2%

2004
D    Gregoire             47.7%         48.9%
R    Rossi                   49.9%        48.9%

2008
D    Gregoire             52.7%         53.2%
R    Rossi                  47.3%         46.8%

2012
D    Inslee                  51.1%         51.3%
R    McKenna            48.8%       48.9%

0 Comments | More in 2014 elections, Governor, homepage, Politics Northwest | Topics: bellwether, Jay Inslee, Rob McKenna

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