Topic: Elway Poll
You are viewing the most recent posts on this topic.
September 10, 2013 at 10:23 AM
A new Elway Poll indicates strong support for two initiatives to the Legislature on the November ballot that would aid initiative signature gatherers, and require labeling of genetically-engineered food.
The poll of 406 registered voters, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points, found that 58 percent of the people surveyed supported Initiative 517 which, among other things, would set penalties for interfering with or retaliating against signature-gatherers and petition-signers.
Elway said in his report that “support for the measure comes from across the political spectrum … those at least ‘probably’” in favor included: 58 percent of Democrats; 62 percent of Republicans; 63 percent of independents; 56 percent of likely voters; 77 percent of voters under age 35; 56 percent of voters over 65.
In addition, the poll found that 66 percent of the voters surveyed supported Initiative 522, which would require most genetically engineered raw agricultural commodities, processed foods, and seeds and seed stocks to be labeled as such when offered for retail sale.
For that measure, Elway said found support “in every demographic category of voter interviewed. The strongest support—highest proportion “definitely” in favor—was among: Voters with incomes over $100,000 (54%); Democrats (50%); voters age 36-64 (48%); independents (42%); voters with incomes under $75,000 (46%); men (45%).”
Both measures were submitted to the state Legislature for consideration in January. With initiatives to the Legislature, state lawmakers can either enact the initiative into law, or send it to the general election ballot. Because no action was taken in either case, the measures automatically go to voters.
January 2, 2013 at 1:04 PM
A new poll by Stuart Elway indicates the “fiscal cliff” debate in Washington, D.C., made Washington voters more pessimistic about the future.
“Throughout 2012, each of the four Voter Outlook Index measures steadily improved, mainly as a result of fewer and fewer people thinking things were getting worse. That trend was reversed this month,” Elway wrote in his report.
“For each component measure, there was a decline in the number of voters who said things were getting better coupled with a doubling of the percentage of voters who said things were getting worse.”
Previously, the index had jumped from its all‐time low of 0.39 in August 2011 to its highest point in eight years last September — 2.04. The score this month was 0.32, its
third‐lowest score in 20 years, Elway wrote.
In an interview, Elway attributed the decline to the debate over the budget and taxes in Congress. “There’s nothing else that has gotten that level of attention,” he said.
September 17, 2012 at 9:53 AM
If you are looking to polling to predict whether four Washington ballot measures are likely to pass this November, the latest Elway Poll offers a giant question mark.
There’s nothing wrong with the polling. It’s just that three ballot measures — the tax limitation measure, gay marriage and marijuana legalization — all are hovering around 50 percent approval.
That’s typically not enough because, as pollster Stuart Elway says, measures that poll below 60 percent in the summer are likely to lose in the fall.
In the latest Elway Poll, both the tax limit measure, Initiative 1185, and Referendum 74, the same-sex marriage measure, had 51 percent approval; Initiative 502, the marijuana legalization proposal, had 50 percent. None of the current measures has ever been above 60 percent in an Elway Poll. Since 1992, Elway says, of 24 measures that polled below 60 percent in the summer, only 8 — a third — passed in November.
The charter school plan, Initiative 1240, was ahead in Elway’s latest poll, but not above 50 percent; it had 47 percent support.
Granted, the ad campaigns are just getting rolling now. And there is a lot of money coming at some of the ballot measures. The Elway Poll also carries a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points, which means there is considerable give in the numbers.
Elway polled 405 registered voters around the state Sept. 9-12.
September 17, 2012 at 6:10 AM
Republican bench: It seems premature, but political analysts are looking at the latest, and, for the moment, Democratic-leaning polls, and wondering if Republican gubernatorial candidate Rob McKenna might lose to Democrat Jay Inslee in the governor’s race, if Reagan Dunn, another Republican, may come up short in November compared with Democrat Bob Ferguson, in the attorney general’s race, who does that leave?
What the political junkies — for example AP’s Chris Grygiel – mean is, Who will be left on the Republican bench for the next go-round for governor and senator in 2016? It’s a good question to ask, but also, early for such talk. Here are some of the polls triggering the questions, the latest Elway poll shows a close race for McKenna and Inslee, and then all Dems all the time in other statewide races.
Defining the middle class: Republican presidential candidate Mitt Romney had another less-than-zen moment last week when he described the middle class as earning $200,000 to $250,000 and less. President Obama, when talking about tax cuts, implies something sort of similar, at least as the ceiling for that group of income earners. What is a reasonable description of a middle-class income?
Occupy: It might be an odd thing to note an anniversary for, but Occupy Wall Street marks its first anniversary today, Monday. Some of the predictable is planned in New York: protesters will surround the stock exchange, do a few sit-ins and disrupt some traffic.
Take a moment to like us on Facebook.
September 14, 2012 at 9:20 AM
The latest Elway Poll is out this morning. And it doubles down on an earlier KING-TV SurveyUSA poll earlier this week that showed Democratic President Obama way out in front of Republican Mitt Romney in Washington state.
Elway’s poll shows Obama 17 points ahead of Romney in our state — 53 percent to 36 percent — a number that echoes the SurveyUSA poll announced earlier this week that showed the president with a 16-point advantage.
If you follow Elway polling to see the trend, the latest poll is a gain from a June presidential gut-check that had Obama ahead in our state by 8 percentage points.
Elway says voter outlook in the state is improving and that may help explain Obama’s good numbers here. “Things stopped getting worse,” explained Elway.
The Elway Poll of 405 registered voters statewide was conducted between Sept. 9-12 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points.
An earlier version of this post contained poll numbers that Elway has since corrected.
July 24, 2012 at 1:51 PM
A new poll by Stuart Elway suggests most of the major measures on the November ballot could be in trouble.
While the measures on same-sex marriage, tax limits, charter schools and marijuana legalization are leading in the polls, only one of them – Tim Eyman’s initiative requiring a two-thirds vote in the Legislature to increase taxes – polled over 50 percent.
“Because support typically fades as the campaign goes on, a ballot measure needs to be polling at 60 percent or better at the start of the summer to still have a majority in November,” Elway wrote.
The exception to that rule may be Eyman’s Initiative 1185, which reaffirms an existing law requiring a two-thirds vote in the Legislature to increase taxes, or voter approval, he said. Elway’s poll showed it leading with 56 percent in favor and to 30 percent opposed.
“There have been times when the tax limitation measures beat the early polls,” Elway said in an interview. “They get better at the end.”
The poll found that 49 percent of voters surveyed planned to vote yes on the gay marriage measure, Referendum 74, while 39 percent would reject it. A yes vote would approve the Legislature’s legalization of same-sex marriage.
Elway said voter confusion over whether a yes vote affirms or rejects gay marriage could be costing the measure support. When voters were asked a follow-up question to clarify if they supported gay marriage, 52 percent planned to vote in favor while 40 percent opposed it.
State Sen. Ed Murray, D-Seattle, a key leader in the push for gay rights and gay marriage in the state, said the campaign is well aware of the issue.
“The campaign knows we have a problem around clarifying that yes means yes. We also know that this is going to be close,” he said.
There will be an advertising campaign, including on television, to try to educate voters, Murray said. Washington United for Marriage, the political action committee supporting R-74, has raised about $2.3 million so far.
Elway’s poll showed I-1240, which authorizes publicly funded charter schools, led by 46 percent to 37 percent. Charter school measures have lost three times previously, in in 1996, 2000 and 2004.
I-502, which would legalize marijuana, led 46 percent to 44 percent. That’s a far different result than a SurveyUSA poll released last week that showed the measure leading 55 percent to 32 percent.
The poll surveyed 405 registered voters from July 18 through July 22 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percent.
About this blog
Trending with readers