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Popcorn & Prejudice: A Movie Blog

Seattle Times writer Moira Macdonald muses on moviegoing. Email Moira: mmacdonald@seattletimes.com.

September 29, 2011 at 12:15 PM

Early odds: Streep to win Oscar

I love Oscar talk as much as the next popcorn-chomping scribe, but generally I like to wait until I’ve actually seen the movies in question. Many critics don’t share my view on this (and hey, that’s OK, a lot of us disagreed on “Fright Night” too), and so the gang at Gold Derby has decided that Meryl Streep is going to win her third Oscar (and her first since, wow, 1982) for “The Iron Lady.” Except that nobody has actually seen this performance, as the movie, far as I know, hasn’t screened anywhere. Is this like betting on a horse when you haven’t seen him run? No, I guess it’s like betting on a horse when you’ve seen him run before, for decades and decades and uncountable accents and giggles and playing with its hair. Just kidding. I love Meryl Streep, and I’d be delighted to see her take home the statuette, but I’m not making any predictions until I see the movie.
The Gold Derby voters have Glenn Close (“Albert Nobbs”) in second place, and while I think it’s a fine performance for Close (yes, I’ve actually seen this one), I think the movie is too small to make much of an Oscar impact. No question she’ll get nominated, though; as will Viola Davis (“The Help”), who’s currently third in GD’s rankings. Also mentioned: Michelle Williams (“My Week with Marilyn”), Charlize Theron (“Young Adult”), Emma Stone (“The Help”), Kirsten Dunst (“Melancholia”), Elizabeth Olson (“Martha Marcy May Marlene”), Rooney Mara (“The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo”), and Anne Hathaway (“One Day,” and may I say, no way).
Just for fun, here are my five Best Actress nominations, based on what I have seen so far this year (so no Streep, Williams, Theron, etc.). We’ll see if some of them get bumped off my list as the year progresses; I’ll do the other acting categories over the coming weeks as well. In alphabetical order:
Glenn Close, “Albert Nobbs”
Viola Davis, “The Help”
Elizabeth Olson, “Martha Marcy May Marlene”
Mia Wasikowska, “Jane Eyre”
Rachel Weisz, “Deep Blue Sea” (not sure if this movie will be released in time to be Oscar-eligible)
And the Oscar goes to . . . Davis, in my book. But your book’s surely different from mine. Who gets your vote?
theHelpfilmViola12.jpg
Viola Davis in “The Help” (photo by Dale Robinette, courtesy of DreamWorks)

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