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April 1, 2013 at 8:52 AM

Imminent trade of Matt Flynn now even more imminent



The details of Seattle’s trade of Matt Flynn — as outlined by Jay Glazer — are surprising. Not that it’s for future draft picks. The fact the Raiders had only three picks in the first five rounds of this year’s draft chafed against the possibility of giving up a pick outright in 2013.

But I expected Seattle to seek the equivalent of about a third-round pick for Flynn, and two picks in the back half of the draft over the next two years certainly doesn’t add up to that. (The general rule of thumb is that a pick in next year’s draft is the equivalent of a pick a full round earlier in this year’s draft i.e. a third-round in next year’s draft like Seattle included in the trade for Percy Harvin is like a fourth-round choice in this year’s draft.)

That said, it’s not unreasonable to think that Oakland is going to struggle this season, and the Raiders’ fourth-round choice in 2014 might turn out to be pretty similar to Seattle’s 2014 third-round choice, which is already promised to Minnesota.

The bigger issue is that the trade of Carson Palmer to Arizona is an indirect implication of this deal. No matter what you think of Palmer’s current standing as a quarterback, there is no doubt he will improve the position that undermined Arizona last season. That said, before we go saying that Seattle’s trade of Flynn to Oakland paved the way for Palmer to head to Arizona, let’s remember that it was Palmer’s imminent departure that created the opening for Flynn’s acquisition, and not the other way around.

Oakland wasn’t going to pay Palmer the $13 million his contract called for. When Palmer wouldn’t take a paycut to stay with the team, it meant he was on the way out in Oakland. If Seattle had then declined to trade Flynn to Oakland, it wouldn’t necessarily have prevented Palmer from ending up in Arizona.

Update: The Seahawks will be receiving a fifth-round pick in 2014 and a conditional choice in 2015, according to Mike Sando’s NFC West blog on ESPN.com.

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