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August 12, 2014 at 8:21 AM

PredictionMachine.com sees a Denver-Seattle Super Bowl rematch — and a Broncos win

It’s always fun to see the NFL season predictions from the PredictionMachine.com.

The PredictionMachine takes a different approach, using a computer it causes the Predictalator to play an upcoming game 50,000 times before it’s actually played.

And it sees Seattle advancing to the Super Bowl, but this time losing to Denver 24-23. The Predictalator also gives Seattle a better than 50 percent chance (actually 56.4 percent) of winning each game, but on average coming away with 11 wins.

Here’s more, straight from the company’s release:

The Denver Broncos lead the way as the most likely Super Bowl Champions, winning it all a league-high 25.1 percent of the time. In the most likely Super Bowl, in a reversal of fortunes from last season, the vastly improved Broncos defeat the Seattle Seahawks 52.9 percent of the time and by an average score of 24-23. Seattle, the NFC’s second-seed, but best overall team, wins the Super Bowl 22.6% of the time. The NFC’s top seeded New Orleans Saints(15.8%), who only play three games against teams we project to make the playoffs, follow the Seahawks and Broncos in Super Bowl likelihood. Among other teams, only the AFC’s second-seededNew England Patriots(8.8%) have better than a four percent (or 1-in-25) shot to win it all. There are 11 teams that win the championship between 1% and 4% of the time, including some teams that did not even make the playoffs last year like theHouston Texans, New York Giants, Washington Redskinsand Arizona Cardinals.

Based on the analysis, here is the projected NFL 2014 Playoff bracket. It should be noted however, that this exact bracket only occurred 402 of the 50,000 seasons played by the Predictalator:

AFC

Wild Card Round
#6 Houston 21 @#3 Indianapolis 27
#5 San Diego 24 @#4 Cincinnati 26

Divisional Round
#3 Indianapolis 24 @#2 New England 30
#4 Cincinnati 21 @#1 Denver 31

AFC Championship
#2 New England 24 @#1 Denver 32

NFC

Wild Card Round

#6 Philadelphia 26 @#3 New York Giants 27
#5 San Francisco 30 @#4 Green Bay 31

Divisional Round
#4 Green Bay 26 @#1 New Orleans 33
#3 New York Giants 17 @#2 Seattle 24

NFC Championship
#2 Seattle 21@ #1 New Orleans 20

Super Bowl
Denver 24over Seattle 23

Other Info:
Teams that should surprise (good):Minnesota Vikings, Cleveland Browns, New York Giants, Houston Texans
Teams that should surprise (bad):Chicago Bears, Dallas Cowboys, Carolina Panthers, Kansas City Chiefs
Most Important Player (AFC):Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots
Most Important Player (NFC):Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers
Most Important Rookie (AFC):Ryan Shazier, OLB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Most Important Rookie (NFC):Brandin Cooks, WR, New Orleans Saints

Here are the Seahawks game-by-game projections:

Week Opponent Seattle Seahawks Score Opponent Score Win %
1 Packers 29.8 21.4 69.9
2 @ Chargers 27.0 19.8 67.7
3 Broncos 26.1 21.3 61.5
4 Bye
5 @ Redskins 26.6 19.9 66.5
6 Cowboys 33.7 19.3 83.2
7 @ Rams 23.5 17.1 67.3
8 @ Panthers 21.4 15.5 66.4
9 Raiders 28.3 14.3 85.4
10 Giants 25.3 15.9 74.3
11 @ Chiefs 27.1 17.4 75.2
12 Cardinals 24.8 16.7 71.0
13 @ 49ers 23.2 20.7 56.4
14 @ Eagles 28.9 23.2 63.7
15 49ers 25.5 18.8 67.2
16 @ Cardinals 22.6 17.8 62.7
17 Rams 25.4 15.5 75.6
Seattle Seahawks Pts/Game Opponent Pts/Game Total Wins
26.2 18.4 11.1

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