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The latest news and analysis from all angles on the Seahawks.

October 20, 2014 at 9:49 PM

Seahawks favored to win at Carolina, but not to make the playoffs?

As they have been for every other game  this season, the Seahawks are favored Sunday to beat Carolina, by 4-5 points depending on the sports book (lots of lines here.

Like they are on the field, Seattle is 3-3 against the spread, but pulling it off in a unique way of covering every time they have won, while losing outright in the other three games.

Seattle has been an underdog only once in the regular season since 2012, that coming in the game at San Francisco, when they were thee-point underdogs. The 49ers won 19-17, so Seattle at least made the gamblers happy that day.

Speaking of odds, Nate Silver of 538.com wrote today that the Seahawks are now underdogs to merely make the playoffs.

Stated Silver in part:

In the simulations we ran after Sunday night’s games, Seattle made the playoffs just 46 percent of the time.

The Seahawks are harmed by playing in the NFL’s toughest division, in a deep conference and against a very tough schedule. A league-average team playing Seattle’s schedule this year would be expected to go 7-9 based on each opponent’s Elo ratings, so the schedule costs the Seahawks about one win.

Seattle will also need to finish with an 11-5 record or better to be assured of making the playoffs. In simulations where Seattle finished 9-7 — its most likely record according to Elo — it made the playoffs just 23 percent of time, well below the historical average for 9-7 teams of about 50 percent.

Interesting stuff. Just another challenge for a team that has thrived on them the last few years.

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