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December 16, 2014 at 1:18 PM

A couple more thoughts on Seattle’s playoff odds

The point may be obvious now — Seattle pretty much needs to win just one more game to get a playoff spot, and with two will get a first-round bye and has a great chance at getting home-field advantage through the playoffs.

But here are a few links that further illustrate things. ….

  • First, here’s makenflplayoffs.com, which calculates odds for every team each week to make the post-season. The site states of Seattle that: “The Seahawks have a 92.3% chance of making the playoffs and need to win 1 of the remaining 2 games to virtually clinch a playoff berth (99.99%+).” As stated earlier, the only way Seattle misses the playoffs at 11-5 is if Detroit and Green Bay tie in the season finale and finish 11-4-1 while Philadelphia and Dallas each go 11-5, with the Eagles winning the East and Dallas being the other wild card. That would give Dallas the final playoff spot, thanks to the head-t0-head win over Seattle in October.
  • Makenflplayoffs.com also summarizes the NFC playoff picture this way:
“In the NFC, the Cardinals clinched a playoff berth with their win in week 15. Six other teams control their own destiny, with the Lions needing only one win to clinch a playoff spot. The Seahawks have a 99.995% chance of making the playoffs with one win. The Cardinals have the best shot at the top seed with the most wins in the NFC. No team has clinched a first-round bye.”
  • Here is a piece from Grantland.com that assesses Seattle as having a 98 percent chance to make the playoffs — 68 percent to win the NFC West and 30 percent to get a wild card spot. Grantland writes:

Seattle is a 7.5-point favorite on the road in Arizona this week, and if the Seahawks’ suffocating defense can keep Lindley contained, the team should be able to claim first place in the NFC West.

If the Seahawks do win out and finish at 12-4, they should be in great shape. As mentioned earlier, they actually beat the Cowboys in three-way tiebreakers. They also prevail over the Packers, both heads-up (after beating Green Bay in Week 1) and in a multi-way tie (because of what would be an unassailable 10-2 record in the NFC). If the Lions come away with the NFC North, that’s fine, too, as the Seahawks’ record is superior to Detroit’s against common opponents.

The tiebreaker Seattle wants to avoid is the heads-up game against the Cowboys, and the easiest way for that to happen is to prevent Dallas from making it to 12 wins. That duty will fall to the Colts, who might face a DeMarco Murray-less Cowboys team this Sunday in Arlington. If the Seahawks and Colts win this weekend, Seattle is in great shape to gain home-field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs.

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