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January 15, 2015 at 11:22 AM

Odds favor Seahawks — but maybe not as much as you’d think

Seattle remains a 7-to-7.5-point favorite over the Green Bay Packers for Sunday’s NFC championship. And history shows that in general, that’s a good thing.

But history also shows that underdogs in these games have won maybe more often than you think.

OddsShark.com (@OddsShark on Twitter) details that since 1998, there have been 12 instances where the Conference Title Games had a favorite of a touchdown or more. The highest spread was St. Louis  by 15.5 points over Tampa Bay in 2000. The Rams won, but in a tight game that went to the wire, 11-6.

And in those 12 games, the favored team has a straight-up record of 7-5 and has covered the spread just three times.

Here’s the chart, from OddsShark.

 

Date Road Total Home Total Line OU    Dog/Fave
1/17/1999 Atlanta 30 Minnesota 27 -12 55.5 Atlanta OVER DOG
1/17/1999 NY Jets 10 Denver 23 -9 50.5 Denver UNDER FAVE
1/23/2000 Tampa Bay 6 St. Louis 11 -16 45 Tampa Bay UNDER DOG
1/23/2000 Tennessee 33 Jacksonville 14 -7.5 39.5 Tennessee OVER DOG
1/27/2002 New England 24 Pittsburgh 17 -8 36 New England OVER DOG
1/27/2002 Philadelphia 24 St. Louis 29 -12 51.5 Philadelphia OVER DOG
1/19/2003 Tennessee 24 Oakland 41 -7.5 47 Oakland OVER FAVE
1/20/2008 San Diego 12 New England 21 -14 46.5 San Diego UNDER DOG
1/20/2008 NY Giants 23 Green Bay 20 -7 40.5 NY Giants OVER DOG
1/24/2010 NY Jets 17 Indianapolis 30 -7.5 40 Indianapolis OVER FAVE
1/22/2012 Baltimore 20 New England 23 -7 49 Baltimore UNDER DOG
1/20/2013 Baltimore 28 New England 13 -8 49.5 Baltimore UNDER DOG

Here are some more betting line odds and ends on the Seattle-Green Bay game:

  • Packers and Seahawks have met twice in playoffs, home team (Green Bay) won both times (2004, 2008)
  • Packers 2-6 SU as playoff underdogs since 1996
  • Packers 1-8 SU & ATS last 9 games as road underdogs
  • Packers 1-5 SU & ATS last 6 road games vs. NFC West
  • Packers 1-3 ATS last 4 road games (2-2 SU)
  • Packers 6-3 SU last 9 meetings with Seahawks (4-3-2 ATS)
  • Seahawks have won eight straight as playoff favorites, 5-2-1 ATS
  • Seahawks 7-0 SU last 7 games (6-0-1 ATS)
  • Seahawks 5-0 SU & ATS last 5 home games vs. NFC North
  • Seahawks 5-1 SU & ATS last 6 playoff games
  • Seahawks 23-7 ATS last 30 home games (27-3 SU)
  • OVER 6-3 in last 9 meetings
  • OVER 4-0 in Green Bay’s last 4 road games vs. NFC West
  • OVER 8-3 in Green Bay’s last 11 games as road underdog
  • UNDER 3-0 in Green Bay’s last 3 road games
  • UNDER 3-1 in Seattle’s last 4 home games
  • OVER 9-2 in Seattle’s last 11 home games vs. NFC North

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