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UW Election Eye 2012

Campaign 2012 through the eyes of UW faculty and students

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You are currently viewing all posts written by Jason Gilmore. Jason Gilmore is an advanced doctoral student at the University of Washington. His research focuses on political communication across cultures. His dissertation looks at how U.S. presidents have employed ideas of American exceptionalism in speeches at home and abroad and how those messages affect America’s national image.

February 15, 2012 at 6:30 AM

Republican problems with Latino voters run deep, but some seek a new course

Every election cycle, pundits, candidates, and journalists speculate that this might be the campaign in which a Republican presidential candidate wins over Latino voters, a large and growing body of the electorate.

Unless something dramatic occurs, it will not happen this year.

Percent of Latino registered voters expressing "favorable" opinions of these politicians (Latino Decisions survey, January 16-23, 2012, margin of eror +/- 4.4%)

A mid-January national poll of Latino registered voters — conducted in part by UW political science professor Matt Barreto — showed that the most recent Republican president, George W. Bush, and the three front-running 2012 GOP presidential candidates are viewed far less favorably than the current Democratic president, Barack Obama. Among Latinos with opinions of the candidates, 72% had a favorable impression of Obama, compared to no more than 37% for any of the Republicans.

In head-to-head electoral matchups in the same survey, Obama beat Mitt Romney 67-25 and Newt Gingrich 70-22. Each of these was even more tilted than in the 2008 election, when Obama beat John McCain 67-31 among Latinos voters.

So why aren’t Republicans winning over Latino voters?


Comments | Topics: Colorado, Latinos, Mitt Romney