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UW Election Eye 2012

Campaign 2012 through the eyes of UW faculty and students

Topic: Gallup

You are viewing the most recent posts on this topic.

October 8, 2012 at 7:00 AM

Monday Eye Openers: Importance of minority voters, debate season, and Referendum 74 supporters

The results from CNN/ORC International poll of likely Latino voters conducted at the end of September 2012. Minority voters play crucial role Early estimates indicated that President Barack Obama will need 80% of the minority vote and 40% of the white vote to win the 2012 election. Mitt Romney, on the other hand, needs an estimated…

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Comments | More in National | Topics: debate, Gallup, Latino Decisions

August 24, 2012 at 9:47 AM

With Republican convention up next, why Mitt Romney is losing when he should be winning

By all traditional measures of a presidential campaign, Mitt Romney should be crushing Barack Obama. But he’s not. Why? The numbers tell the story.

The economy has been stagnant, unemployment is at 8.3%, and the approval ratings of Barack Obama are in the mid to upper-40s. This presidential campaign should not be close. But it is.

In fact,when we look at the realclearpolitics daily average of polls on the presidential race, Mitt Romney has almost never led over the past 18 months. The lines of Obama and Romney support go up and down, sometimes almost crossing. But Obama has been on top consistently for many months.

And this morning, New York Times reporter John Harwood noted that the Romney camp acknowledges they are slightly trailing as we head into the party nominating conventions.

How can that possibly be? A USAToday/Gallup poll out this morning provides a pretty clear answer.

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Comments | More in National | Topics: Barack Obama, Gallup, likeability

August 12, 2012 at 11:44 PM

Monday eye-opener: First reactions to Romney’s VP pick, and Giffords moves home

Presidential candidate Mitt Romney announced U.S. Rep Paul Ryan of Wisconsin as his running mate on Saturday. According to CNN.com, President Obama welcomed Ryan to the race and referred to him as “an articulate spokesman for Gov. Romney’s vision.” Meantime, according to Foxnews.com, former Presidential hopeful John McCain considered Romney’s pick  a “bold…

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Comments | More in National | Topics: eyeopener, Gabrielle Giffords, Gallup